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Builder confidence locked in a downward spiral PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Becky   
Wednesday, 19 November 2008

The outlook for home builders is looking grim. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo housing index for November, hit the lowest level recorded since the index was started in 1985. The figure totaled for November is at an all time low level of 9, a lot lower then the figure estimated by economists, who had hoped it would stay at 14, which was the low set in October.

Readings below 50 mean that there is a greater number of builders who think home sales conditions are poor, then those who think that the market is at a healthy number for sales. For this reading, buyers were asked about their opinion in regards to the market, the amount of buyers searching for homes, and the builders future estimate on the market 6 months out. Drops in builder confidence can be attributed to the crumbling state of the market, high unemployment, and consumer distress/fear. The Chairman for NAHB, Sandy Dunn, spoke out about the situation, saying "Today's report shows that we are in a crisis situation,...Tremendous economic uncertainties have driven consumers from the housing market, and it's going to take some major incentives to bring them back."

Over 400 homebuilders were surveyed, and of those almost 98% feel that the main problem with the market is consumer concern, followed by the amount of homes unable to sell on the market, stricter lending conditions, etc. From the survey, builders also gave perspective on their future plans: 49% plan to build less homes in the first part of 2009 then that of the latter of 2008, by a lowering of almost 17%, and only 16% of builders report they will build more homes. An analyst at Weiss Research, Mike Larson, commented on the statistics, saying "This November data is downright atrocious,...If you're looking for a glimmer of hope for the housing market, you aren't going to find it in the latest figures... Ultimately, it will take lower home prices, even less building activity, and an economic recovery to lay the groundwork for a lasting market rebound,...But that is in the future, not the present."

 
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